There once was a quarterback who could read defenses with the speed of Tom Brady, throw the ball with the accuracy of Aaron Rodgers, and lead a team like no other. 405 yards, three passing touchdowns, an 82% completion percentage, and a win on the back of a miraculous comeback victory in the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals; he accomplished all of this in his first career start, and you probably can’t even name him. 

The person who designed this comeback isn’t anyone notable. It was, at the time, the New York Jets’ fourth-string quarterback Mike White, but he isn’t an outlier. White is just one person on a list of backup quarterbacks that, when given the opportunity to play, ball out. I’ve coined this the Mike White Effect: when a fourth-string quarterback comes into one of their first games and performs far above expectations.

Quarterbacks like White rarely get the chance to play, much less start an NFL game, but when they do, games like this one are more likely to happen. You would think NFL defenses that have the chance to play against a fourth stringer would step up their game, but that is rarely the case. 

In order to understand the calculated randomness that is these standout games from less than standout players, you have to look at other quarterbacks that have been thrust into similar situations. 

An average quarterback game is about 230 yards, two touchdowns, and about one interception. Anything above this line is an above-average game. This is the average for a starting QB who has cemented themselves in the league. The projected performance for a fourth stringer is far below that—most likely around 180 yards, and you hope for a touchdown.

In 2023, the New England Patriots were a terrible team, finishing the year 3-14, plagued by bad coaching and inconsistent quarterback play. Mac Jones, the starting QB for the Patriots at the time, had thrown 10 touchdowns to 12 interceptions on the season, winning just two out of 11 games for the year. However, in a late-season matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers–who were trying to sneak into the playoffs, a secret weapon was let loose. 

Quarterback Bailey Zappe was finally given the reins for the Patriots’ offense, and he did not disappoint. He orchestrated the offense down the field every play, leading the atrocious New England offense to touchdown after touchdown. He finished the game with 240 yards, three touchdowns, and a win against the rival Steelers. 

These are only a couple of the quarterbacks that have stepped up into the role of elite level signal caller. Some more examples include Tommy DeVito during his two-year stint with the New York Giants and former Carolina Panthers quarterback PJ Walker Jr. In 2023, week 11 versus the Washington Commanders, DeVito had 250 yards along with three touchdowns against a division rival. In week 8 of 2022, Walker had 320 yards and a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons.

If you watch these games, you might think that your team has found the next big thing, a diamond in the rough. However, all of these players have and will regress back to their mean, just like how White returned to his typical caliber of play within two weeks, throwing four interceptions. This leaves one question: how can one player step into one of the hardest roles in all of sports, dominate like no other, and then immediately play terribly in the coming weeks? 

The answer comes down to a defense having no game plan for these quarterbacks. Defensive coordinators might have some college tape on the quarterback’s play, but nothing relevant to the current system the quarterback is playing in. So when the quarterback starts heating up, the defense often has no answer. 

This allows quarterbacks like Zappe and White to go off for big games and look like 10-year veterans in the league. It is also why immediately after these backups’ first big game, they regress, often turning over the ball more than once and losing the game. White finished the season with an atrocious game: he had 250 passing yards, but threw four interceptions. Zappe threw zero touchdowns to five interceptions in the last two games of that year; he would later be cut from the team.

The chance of any of these quarterbacks being the next Joe Montana or becoming a superstar is slim to none. There’s often a reason why these players are the backup to the backup. However, if your team is down in the dumps and they end up starting their fourth stringer, it’s important to remember players like White to give yourself just a little more hope. Who knows, he just might play like the next Dan Marino.